US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

30 July 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

Joblessclaims: Initial claims rose to 197k for the week ending 25 July from 188k +1 212 667 9347

previously. Continuing claims ticked down to 1782k for the week ending 18 July (July Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

NFP's survey reference week) from a downwardly revised 1789k previously. Claims have jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

continued to trend down lately, pointing to a resilient labor market (Fig.1). +1 212 667 9637

PCEdeflator: Core PCE inflation came in softer than expected, rising only by 0.132% m- Ruchir Sharma - NSI

o-m in June (Consensus: 0.2%, Nomura: 0.175%). In details, our forecast miss of 4bp was ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9186largely attributable to two volatile components: final consumption expenditures of nonprofit

institutions serving households (NPISH) and domestic airline fares. NPISH dropped more

sharply than our expectation, declining by 1.3% m-o-m, which marked the largest monthly

decrease since October 2017. On domestic airline fares, the BEA's update to seasonal

adjustment factors appears to have weighed on that component for June.

Other than those two components, there were no major surprises. That said, the weaker-

than-expected June reading pushed down y-o-y core PCE inflation to 3.287% in the

month, slightly below our forecast of 3.321% (Consensus: 3.3%).

Looking ahead, negative residual seasonality, waning impact from tariffs, moderating

wage growth, and plannedmethodologicalchanges all support our expectation that m-o-

m core PCE inflation will remain benign in coming months, which is likely to support the