Japan equity weekly: Responses to questions about when Nikkei 225 will reach 100,000 and longer-term perspective

Research evidence excerpt

Japan equity weekly: Responses to questions about when Nikkei 225 will reach 100,000 and longer-term perspective

Global Markets Research

Japan equity weekly (30 July 2026) 30 July 2026

EQUITY: JAPAN STRATEGY

Responses to questions about when Nikkei 225 will Research Analysts

reach 100,000 and longer-term perspective Macro strategy Tomochika Kitaoka - NSC

Looking back at exits when equities were low since 2024, GPIF update, tomochika.kitaoka@nomura.com

FSA progress report, early results season report +81 3 6703 1815

Masaki Motomura - NSC

Question about Nikkei 225 hitting 100,000 and changes in reactions to our equity masaki.motomura@nomura.com

outlook +81 3 6703 1119

The QUICKMonthlyMarketSurvey, released on 6 July, had an interesting question about Naoya Fuji - NSC

when respondents expected the Nikkei 225 to exceed 100,000. Some observers took the naoya.fuji@nomura.com

view that the index would reach 100,000 the following year when it approached the 40,000 +81 3 6703 1245

level at the end of 1989, but it ended up losing around half its value over the next 10 Momoko Nakada - NSC

months. This July, the majority of respondents (53%) said that it would hit the 100,000 momoko.nakada@nomura.com

mark in 2028–29, well above the 20–25% probability estimated from a normal distribution, +81 3 6703 1100

suggesting excessive optimism (Figure1). We have retained our main scenario of the

Tomoharu Kurosu - NSCNikkei 225 at 68,000 at end-2026 since 26 May (see our 19 June 2026 report Japanese tomoharu.kurosu@nomura.com

equitiesinvestmentstrategy(June) and our 17 July 2026 report Japaneseequities +81 3 6703 3875

investmentstrategy(July)). In June, many of the investors we spoke with said that we