Apple F3Q26 Review: Demand Robustness Running into Wall of Supply and Cost Challenges; Trim Near-Term Estimates

Research evidence excerpt

Apple F3Q26 Review: Demand Robustness Running into Wall of Supply and Cost Challenges; Trim Near-Term Estimates

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

30 July 2026

Apple

F3Q26 Review: Demand Robustness Running into Wall Overweight

of Supply and Cost Challenges; Trim Near-Term AAPL, AAPL US

Estimates Price (30 Jul 26):$333.43

▼Price Target (Dec-27):$340.00

Prior (Dec-27):$345.00

Apple’s F3Q26 (June-Q) results reinforce our view that the current product cycle

has considerably more momentum than investors anticipated, with strength not Software - Large Cap / Mid & Small

Caponly in relation to the iPhone 17 cycle but also in relation to Mac devices where

TAM expansion with MacBook Neo as well as demand for MacBook Pro, Studio Samik Chatterjee, CFA AC

and Mini on account of demand for Edge AI is enabling the portfolio to drive (1-212) 622-0798

samik.x.chatterjee@jpmorgan.com

market share gains. That said, the industry backdrop of supply constraints and

memory cost headwinds are offsetting the positive narrative relative to demand, Jaiden R Patel

(1-212) 270-6953

with supply constraints worsening into the Sep-Q from the June-Q and being jaiden.patel@jpmchase.com

concentrated in access to leading edge processors, while memory headwinds and

Arti Vula, CFA

its impact on Product gross margins is escalating into the Sep-Q despite significant (1-415) 315-5919

price increases taken already on a range of products including Macs and iPads. The arti.vula@jpmchase.com

headwinds in relation to supply and costs are combining with incremental pressure Brian Hyska

from FX headwinds into the Sep-Q to lead to an F4Q (Sep-Q) revenue and (1-212) 622-2883

underlying gross margin (excluding tariff refunds) outlook, both of which are brian.hyska@jpmchase.com