Heartland Express: Highlights from 2Q26 Earnings and Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Heartland Express: Highlights from 2Q26 Earnings and Model Update

Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-1023 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Heartland is one of the top-tier carriers in terms of operating

efficiency, although this level of profitability is achieved on a

smaller scale and with limited diversification relative to peers.

After several acquisitions to expand its geographic reach,

Heartland needs a significant amount of improvement ahead to

get consolidated operating ratios back to the low-80s, as recent

integration efforts have been hampered by the lower-for-longer

environment. Heartland’s results could be affected by higher

gains on sales of tractors, and slowing tractor purchases could

YTD 1m 3m 12m threaten future used vehicle gains.

Abs 41.0% -16.4% -4.9% 62.4%

Rel 22.3% -13.8% -10.1% 30.4% Valuation

Our December 2027 price target is based on a 17x multiple onCompany Data

2028E EPS. Our target multiple sits above where HTLD has

Shares O/S (mn) 77

52-week range ($) 16.64-6.99 typically traded through prior earnings peaks, a premium given

Market cap ($ mn) 986.45 the company’s leverage to the current capacity-driven pricing

Exchange rate 1.00 reset. Heartland could merit a higher valuation over time if the

Free float (%) 61.6%

3M ADV (mn) 0.63 recent diversification into temperature-controlled trailers and

3M ADV ($ mn) 9.2 cross-border freight with Mexico can accelerate earnings

Volatility (90 Day) 42 growth.

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 1|3|2

Key Metrics (FYE Dec) Performance Drivers

$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 806 738 823 879

Adj. EBITDA 102 163 211 231

Adj.