Chipotle (CMG): 2Q26 - Recipe for Growth gains traction

Research evidence excerpt

Chipotle (CMG): 2Q26 - Recipe for Growth gains traction

xpected to open later this year, followed by Singapore in early 2027, while the Middle East

continues to ramp successfully with approximately 15 restaurants already open and sales recovering toward pre-conflict

levels. While international remains a relatively small contributor today, we believe improving unit economics, successful

partner-operated models, and growing confidence in new-market openings could make international an increasingly

meaningful growth driver over the coming years.

• Margin outlook improving: While labor, utilities, insurance, maintenance, and marketing continue to create pressure in

the near term, the gap between pricing and inflation is expected to continue to converge. As traffic improves and HEEP

penetration expands, we believe Chipotle remains well positioned to drive profitable growth.

• Longer-term opportunity remains compelling: By 2027, Chipotle should benefit from a largely completed HEEP rollout,

a national catering platform with significant room for expansion, increased menu innovation, stronger loyalty economics, and

a refreshed marketing strategy. Combined with continued unit growth and improving operational execution, we believe the

company has a credible path toward sustained mid-single-digit same-store sales growth.

FY26 GUIDANCE

• Same-store sales: Low-single-digit growth, increased from prior expectations of flat performance.

• Unit growth: 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, unchanged.

Q3 26 GUIDANCE

• Same-store sales: +1%, reflecting an assumed 200bps Cyclospora-related impact throughout the quarter.

• Pricing: Approximately mid-2% in Q3 and near the high end of the previously communicated 1-2% range for the full year.