Best of Times, Worst of Times: US Restaurants - A Tale of Two Diners

Research evidence excerpt

Best of Times, Worst of Times: US Restaurants - A Tale of Two Diners

15 July 2026

U.S. Restaurants

Best of Times, Worst of Times: US Restaurants - A Tale of Two

Diners

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”. The famous opening line of Charles Danilo Gargiulo

+1 917 344 8475 Dickens’ ‘A Tale of Two Cities’ captures a period of contradiction: the French aristocracy

danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com indulging in opulence and privilege, the peasantry experiencing poverty and oppression.

While 2026 is thankfully not 18th century France, shifting class dynamics remain more

topical than ever, from the US K-shaped economy to the squeezed Chinese middle class. In

this note, we examine to what extent the consumption has shifted also across restaurants - a

sector notoriously resilient through the cycles - and we explore which brands have been most

exposed to the K-shaped dynamic.

Restaurant demand is increasingly being driven by affluent diners, while lower-

income diners continue to exit the category. Credit card data show affluent consumers

(>$100k income) increasing both spending and visit frequency since 2022, while lower-

income consumers (<$45k) have lost share across virtually every major restaurant

concept. Importantly, we think the divergence is primarily traffic-driven rather than check-

driven. Brands such as Cava, Chipotle, Starbucks, and LongHorn Steakhouse exhibit

particularly high exposure to higher-income households, and appear to be among the

largest beneficiaries of affluent customer growth. Other things being equal, this suggests

that restaurant demand is increasingly being supported by consumers who remain relatively

insulated from inflation and macroeconomic pressures.