Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG.N): 2Q26 Final Bite: Another Conservative Guide

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG.N): 2Q26 Final Bite: Another Conservative Guide

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29 Jul 2026 23:01:50 ET │ 14 pages

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG.N)

2Q26 Final Bite: Another Conservative Guide

CITI'S TAKE

CMG posted better-than-expected comp growth (+2.2% vs. Street +1.4%,

including another quarter of positive traffic), suggested recent industry

headlines around cyclospora was a ~2% hit to 3QTD comp and, importantly, Buy

raised ’26 comp guidance (to +LSD%), which embeds this headwind Price (29 Jul 26 16:00) US$34.24

persisting for the balance of 3Q (unlikely, in our view). Zooming out, CMG’s

Target price US$45.00efforts to drive top-line growth are translating into traffic growth and Yr/Yr

RLM expansion may come as soon as 4Q26, indicating that the company is Expected share price return 31.4%

firmly on a path to accelerating top & bottom-line growth over the NTM, Expected dividend yield 0.0%

which should support further multiple expansion, in our view.

Expected total return 31.4%

Key points from management follow-up — (1) 3QTD SSS hit by ~200bps from Market Cap US$43,921M

recent Cyclospora industry headlines and guidance for 3Q/balance of the year

embeds this headwind persisting for the balance of the Q. For 3Q, CMG pointed to

1% comp growth (including 200bps headwind in sales) and line-item guidance

reflects comps at this level. (2) On marketing, some of the new brand positioning is Price Performance

likely to emerge in communication during 3Q, with it potentially carrying more of an (RIC: CMG.N, BB: CMG US)

‘edge’ than the “For Real” campaign and an opportunity for CMG to highlight its food

quality, value for $$ and service vs. competitors. (3) Store equipment packages

delivering upticks in entrees/peak hour (2-3 increase), catering test performing well