Capricorn Metals: First Take: Production in line, FY27 costs and capex above expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Capricorn Metals: First Take: Production in line, FY27 costs and capex above expectations

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

31 July 2026

Capricorn Metals Overweight

CMM.AX, CMM AU

First Take: Production in line, FY27 costs and capex Price (30 Jul 26):A$12.78

above expectations Price Target (Jun-27):A$18.30

Key takeaways: 1) With production of 30.4koz pre-reported, the incremental 4Q Australia

result was AISC of A$1,648/oz, 4% above JPMe, and sales of 34.3koz, 14% above

Metals & Mining

JPMe. 2) FY27 production guidance of 137–147koz is in line with JPMe/BBG at

144koz/143koz. 3) AISC guidance of A$1,900–2,100/oz is 11% above both JPMe Jonathon Sharp AC

and BBG at the midpoint, while growth capital of A$70–85m is 72% above JPMe. (61 2) 9003-8312

jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

We expect FY27 earnings and FCF downgrades. We are OW rated on CMM and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

it is our top mid-cap pick. Lyndon Fagan

• Key positives. FY27 production guidance is in line with JPMe and consensus. (61-2)lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com9003-8648

KEP commissioning remains on schedule for 1Q27. J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

• Key negatives. FY27 AISC guidance is 11% above JPMe and consensus, Devwrat Vegad

while growth capital is materially above JPMe. 4Q AISC was also 4% above (91-22) 6157-3608

JPMe. devwrat.vegad@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited/ J.P.

• Outlook and projects. KEP construction is transitioning into commissioning, Morgan India Private Limited

with CIL commissioning underway and the crusher and mill due to start this Zane Guo

quarter. Karlawinda is expected to operate around the expanded 150kozpa run- (61-3) 9633-4020

zane.guo@jpmorgan.com

rate for the final three quarters of FY27, with remaining KEP spend completing J.P.