GFL Environmental: 2Q26 Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

GFL Environmental: 2Q26 Model Update

ed) Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

acquisition that includes equity dilution. The potential take-private is the Adj. EPS (C$)

carrot for bulls; we will wait to see how this plays out as management noted 2025A 2026E 2027E

Q1 (0.55) 0.08A

a typical LBO at >6x leverage is unlikely (something we also highlighted in our Q2 0.26 0.19A

recent note that high leverage would likely impact exit multiple in the out Q3 0.23 0.11

years). We rate GFL Underweight. See below for additional highlights from the Q4 0.36 0.23

FY 0.75 0.61 0.68

earnings call.

Style Exposure

• Core solid waste demand remains resilient, but GFL is embedding a more

conservative volume outlook as C&D and special waste softness persists

through the back half. Revenue grew 16.3% in 2Q, including 6.4% organic

growth, with price/surcharge recovery more than offsetting volume and

commodity headwinds, while M&A further supported reported growth. Core

price remained the standout driver, with 2Q pricing up 6.1%, 20bps ahead of

plan. Management now expects full-year pricing just above 6%, nearly 50bps

better than the original guide. Volumes came in almost 100bps better than plan,

helped by winter-related catch-up, positive transfer station activity, residential

The authors wish to thank Prerana collection strength, and EPR-related benefits, but external C&D and special

waste landfill tons were down ~10–11% and management now expects those Jhanwar, of the J.P. Morgan Global

trends to persist. GFL updated its full-year volume outlook to approximately Research Center, for contributions to this

-50bps versus the original expectation for modest positive growth, with any report.

rebound in C&D activity positioned as upside rather than embedded in the

guide.