Sphere Entertainment: Positive Commentary on Venue Footprint, Content Pipeline, and Partnerships; Full Year and 2027 Estimates Largely Unchanged

Research evidence excerpt

Sphere Entertainment: Positive Commentary on Venue Footprint, Content Pipeline, and Partnerships; Full Year and 2027 Estimates Largely Unchanged

FYE Dec)

project, management indicated that domestically there is a preference for owned

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or sale leaseback, while international is dependent on the market. Overall, the Adj. EBITDA - 26E ($ mn) 326 324 -0.7%

reiterated goal is to quickly grow the number of Spheres, with a vision of 5-plus Adj. EBITDA - 27E ($ mn) 332 331 -0.4%

venues opened in 5-plus years, and with more in development by that time. CEO

Dolan further stated it was very possible there would be another announcement this Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

year, with ‘pretty serious discussions’ on a couple locations. Less prominent on the Adj. EBITDA ($ mn)

call but substantial messaging in our view is that management sees Sponsorship & 2025A 2026E 2027E

Q1 36 110A

Exosphere business as a ‘true growth driver’ in the next few quarters and into next Q2 61 51A

year, with a strong pipeline of official partnerships. Q3 36 43

Q4 128 120

We update our model, leaving 2026 and 2027 estimates largely unchanged, with FY 262 324 331

greater contribution from Exosphere, sponsorship, and concerts, and less from the Style Exposure

Sphere Experience. We remain Overweight, seeing continued upside to forecasts

across revenue lines, with further catalysts from partner announcements.

• Sphere segment model update. For 2026, we forecast revenue/AOI of

$980m/$253m, down marginally from prior. In Q3, we look for WoZ revenue

of $124m, up slightly q/q on more shows and a seasonal pick up in September.

Our Q4 WoZ estimate is $164m, which accounts for typical better demand over

the holidays and help from a 2.0 version of the show. While our 2H Sphere