Mexico Food: Rewarding Momentum. Upgrading Bimbo to N, Downgrading Gruma to UW. Reiterating Sigma OW

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico Food: Rewarding Momentum. Upgrading Bimbo to N, Downgrading Gruma to UW. Reiterating Sigma OW

d pricing/promo, which helps the narrative

shift from “stabilization” to “turnaround with share.” Importantly, Nielsen also supports

the improvement (full analysis included in the report): in 2Q26 Bimbo’s bread growth

was 0.0% y/y (in line with Private Label and ahead of the industry at -1.1%), and on a

2026 YTD basis Bimbo is 0% vs -6% in 7M25, now ahead of both Private Label (-4%)

and the industry (-1%), consistent with a meaningful relative stabilization after a

prolonged period of underperformance. Mexico also remains a clear support:

management called the consumer backdrop resilient and expressed confidence that

Mexico margin levels are sustainable with a long-term intent to keep improving, while

noting broad-based growth with convenience particularly strong (seasonality/World Cup

helped, but the emphasis was on execution/service). Valuation: at ~20x 12m fwd P/E,

Bimbo sits at a premium to the peer group, which in our view caps OW upside (hence

Neutral), even if we agree it may have the best EPS growth in the space near term, with

15% of that coming from an easier comp base.

• Gruma (downgrade to Underweight from Neutral): We’re downgrading Gruma to

Underweight as earnings momentum is now the weakest in the group, driven by a deeper

than expected U.S. reset and a more cautious consolidated guide that widens the potential

miss range into 2H. Management cut consolidated guidance across the board: revenue

moved from low-single-digit growth to a fractional decline in revenue/volume, while

EBITDA margin guidance widened from roughly (40–60) bps contraction to ~160 bps

contraction, explicitly flagging high fuel prices as a risk. This is a meaningful negative