Saia Highlights from Calls with the Company and Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Saia Highlights from Calls with the Company and Model Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

30 July 2026

Saia Overweight

SAIA, SAIA US

Highlights from Calls with the Company and Model Price (29 Jul 26):$394.44

Update ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$498.00 Prior (Dec-26):$490.00

Saia significantly underperformed as a modest 2Q beat was overshadowed by soft

incremental margins, which management attributed to still-maturing terminals and Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Shippingpersistent mix headwinds, setting the stage for a disappointing 3Q OR guide. The

OR guide notably implies worse margins YoY, with management calling out the Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

impact of two wage increases over the last year that compound off a higher base, (1-212) 622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

along with shipment volatility from the +7.1% GRI implemented on the first of

July. We also expect Saia and other LTL carriers are encountering YoY incentive Grady Carr

(1-212) 622-1251

comp headwinds similar to what XPO described on its earnings call earlier today. grady.carr@jpmchase.com

On the yield side, while we recognize the negative revenue per CWT ex-fuel was

Brandon Wexler

pressured by the positive trend of heavier weight per shipment along with other mix (1-212) 622-1956

impacts, the normalized metric continued to meaningfully lag the headline contract brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

renewals which reached double-digits. Overall, we remain optimistic in the J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

operating leverage and growth runway afforded by the expanded footprint, but

unlocking its full potential to drive stronger incremental margins and earnings

Key Changes (FYE Dec)growth still appears multiple quarters away.

Prev Cur Δ

• Operating leverage has yet to emerge.