Check Point Software: GTM Disruption Persists as Unchanged FY26 Outlook Implies a Tougher Back-End-Loaded Setup

Research evidence excerpt

Check Point Software: GTM Disruption Persists as Unchanged FY26 Outlook Implies a Tougher Back-End-Loaded Setup

sumes a win rate in 2H’26 similar to the lower win

rate seen in 2Q (rather than improvement), and assumes no benefit from AI Network

Firewall business or planned 3Q price increases. We view the more back-half-weighted

setup as an incremental layer of risk as we continue to look for signs of improved

execution.

• GTM stabilization and the firewall and support revenue path forward as several

headwinds abate. Management indicated it expects GTM disruption will gradually

stabilize, and views 3Q as a trough. The next phase of GTM change is expected to include

a hiring campaign of roughly 300 additional go-to-market hires spread globally across

generalists and specialists. Management expects the impact of the effort will be seen in

1H27 as the new reps ramp, and the current FY26 outlook does not embed any hiring

benefit. Management noted the lower firewall refresh pressures support revenue on the

software updates and maintenance line, since roughly 15% of maintenance revenue

comes from professional services attached to appliance deployments. The company

anticipates that this pressure will persist into 3Q, with the support line stabilizing as

firewall demand improves in 4Q and rebounding in 1H27 as product recovers. However,

as we noted above, the magnitude of decline for software updates and services is the

greatest we’ve seen in over 10 years, prompting concern that there may be other issues

pressuring this revenue. The company also flagged a roughly 1pt subscription headwind

from the Wiz partnership that should persist into 1Q next year. Management noted the

majority of appliance sales come from existing customers refreshing their install base,