2Q26: FCF Strength Shines, but Subs Growth Remains Elusive

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26: FCF Strength Shines, but Subs Growth Remains Elusive

Update

July 30, 2026 08:07 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMADT Inc | North America Greg Parrish, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26: FCF Strength Shines, but Greg.Parrish@morganstanley.comYehuda Silverman +1 212 761-0156

Research Associate

Yehuda.Silverman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4196

Subs Growth Remains Elusive Toni Kaplan

What’s Changed Toni.Kaplan@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3620

ADT Inc (ADT.N) From To ADT Inc (ADT.N, ADT UN)

Price Target $7.50 $7.75

Business & Education Services | United States of America

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Price target $7.75

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher Shr price, close (Jul 29, 2026) $7.41

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Mkt cap, curr (mm) $5,669

consensus EPS 52-Week Range $8.94-6.24

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Revenue, net ($mm) 5,128 5,246 5,372 5,475

Topline KPI's were in-line with expectations as subs growth EBITDA ($mm)** 2,681 2,730 2,796 2,850

ModelWare EPS ($) 0.73 0.84 0.90 1.00

remains constrained. FCF was well ahead of expectations and EPS ($)** 0.89 0.95 1.01 1.08

continues to outperform. Subscriber growth headwinds remain, EPS ($)§ 0.88 0.91 0.97 1.04

but DIY ADT Blu off to solid start and could provide the Unlessframeworkotherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

** = Based on consensus methodology

subscriber tailwind ADT needs. PT to $7.75, remain EW. § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($)

Key Takeaways 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current