2Q26 Earnings Preview: Positive Backdrop

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Earnings Preview: Positive Backdrop

Idea

July 13, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMBusiness & Education Services | North America Toni Kaplan

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Earnings Preview: Positive Toni.Kaplan@morganstanley.comGreg Parrish, CFA +1 212 761-3620

Greg.Parrish@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0156

Backdrop Yehuda Silverman

Research Associate

Yehuda.Silverman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4196

We look at 2Q commentary from our Business Services

Business & Education Services

companies ahead of earnings. Similarly to 1Q, we expect any North America

organic growth weakness to be punished and attributed to AI, Industry View In-Line

while investors will be looking forward towards implied 2H

performance.

Key Takeaways

We expect organic growth to be the key focus metric across, with any weakness

being punished for perceived AI disruption.

Investors will be focused on commentary on 2H, which is largely expected to

feature acceleration across the Info Services space.

We remain OW on SPGI, MSCI, EFX, TRU, WCN, ROL, MH, PXED and UW on

BFAM, KLC.

How are we thinking about the set-up into 2Q? Strong issuance (+20%), capital

market activity (M&A announcements+64%), ETF AUM linked to MSCI's Indices

(+45% y/y), and portfolio management employment data (+5% vs. 1-yr average of

4.4%) in 2Q create a strong set-up for the Rating Agencies and MSCI. Fast adoption

of MCPs should help drive higher pricing and potentially more widespread adoption

of datasets. Investments in AI and new products are likely to prevail as companies

focus on higher top line growth, while productivity efficiencies can help control

margins. While VRSK's growth should accelerate through year-end, this is well-

known, and the insurance market's growth continues to decelerate, creating longer-