Analyzing Aramark‘s Key Debates

Research evidence excerpt

Analyzing Aramark‘s Key Debates

s methodology

view the Nexus opportunity as a compelling long-term driver and factor in the two § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

signed sites to begin in FY27.

Quarterly EPS ($)

2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

2) What is ARMK's normalized growth rate? ARMK's growth rate has accelerated Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

from pre-COVID levels, seeing new wins in several verticals such as higher Q1 0.51 - 0.51a 0.64 0.64

Q2 0.34 - 0.49a 0.62 0.62

education, collegiate athletics, healthcare networks, and most recently, datacenters Q3 0.40 0.49 0.49 0.59 0.59

via its new Aramark Nexus, which we view as an innovative product offering. Bears Q4 0.57 0.70 0.70 0.82 0.81

worry about competition and decelerating inflation impacting pricing. Bulls believe e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

ARMK should be able to maintain higher growth for longer with continuation of

strong KPIs (new wins and retention), especially as new opportunities arise within

the data center endmarket. We view Aramark as a faster-growing company under its

new management, driven by success across key verticals, which supports sustained

mid-single-digit organic growth rather than a return to low-single-digit growth.

3) How sustainable is the pace of net new wins and retention? ARMK has

exceeded or met its net new win and retention targets of 4-5% and 95%+

(respectively) in 4 of the past 5 years. Bears view competition as a risk and worry

about outsourcing returning to prior levels, leading to lower whitespace. Further, if Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

AI leads to job losses, that could be a potential headwind to growth and retention.