O‘Reilly Automotive: Great Time to Buy ORLY; Reiterate Overweight

Research evidence excerpt

O‘Reilly Automotive: Great Time to Buy ORLY; Reiterate Overweight

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

30 July 2026

O'Reilly Automotive Overweight

ORLY, ORLY US

Great Time to Buy ORLY; Reiterate Overweight Price (29 Jul 26):$90.63

Price Target (Dec-26):$108.00

PM’s take: momentum in motion with the wall of worry set to be scaled; I have Retailing – Broadlines & Hardlines /

exorcized the demons. ORLY’s step up in share gains in 1H26 has been impressive Leisure

(2x+ comps vs. AAP/AZO/GPC) while op exp growth is moderating (an investor Christopher Horvers, CFA AC

hang up in 2025). That said, the stock continues to climb the wall of worry against (1-212) 622-1316

higher inflation comparisons (ramping from 1.5% in 2Q to 5-6% in 4Q) while the christopher.horvers@jpmorgan.com

daily tribulations of the AI trade and gas prices affect this sector and our staples Christian Carlino, CFA

retailers (e.g. WMT, COST), in particular. That said, given the needs-based nature (1-212) 622-9145

of the category and deferred maintenance, we think investor concerns on inflation christian.carlino@jpmorgan.com

comparisons are overdone, especially for the likes of of mighty ORLY. Finally, we Jolie Wasserman

(1-212) 622-1961

believe GPC’s and ORLY’s comments both put the deal chatter to bed, with jolie.wasserman@jpmchase.com

ORLY’s aggressive repurchases punctuating. On the stock, ORLY remains the best J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

sector/company combo in our coverage, and we reiterate our Overweight rating,

with our $108 PT based on 29x P/E on our 2027 estimates equivalent to 20x EV/

EBITDA with 2026 valuaiton at 27x/19x, respectively). Indeed, we can see this Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

stock quietly grinding higher over the next few months as the inflation and gas price Adj. EPS ($)