XPO Inc: Highlights from Calls with the Company & Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

XPO Inc: Highlights from Calls with the Company & Model Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

30 July 2026

XPO Inc Overweight

XPO, XPO US

Highlights from Calls with the Company & Model Price (29 Jul 26):$199.38

Update ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$214.00 Prior (Dec-26):$210.00

XPO delivered another solid beat in 2Q26 as accelerating volume and above-market

yield growth drove a record adjusted OR below 80%, while the 2H26 outlook calls for Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Shippingcontinued margin outperformance versus seasonality despite persistent incentive

comp headwinds. Volume inflected through the quarter and into July, with tonnage per Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

day accelerating to +MSDs and outpacing normal seasonality, which supports (1-212) 622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

management’s improved FY OR guide. Productivity gains again meaningfully

exceeded XPO’s long-term target as AI-driven tools continue rolling out across the Grady Carr

(1-212) 622-1251

network with a focus on improving dock and driver efficiency. We believe fuel grady.carr@jpmchase.com

provided a meaningful tailwind in the quarter although, as usual, the degree is difficult

Brandon Wexler

to quantify, and the 3Q26 outlook reflects a sequentially softer fuel backdrop. We (1-212) 622-1956

continue to believe XPO is well positioned for the impending up-cycle with its brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

network operating north of 30% excess door capacity while insourced linehaul creates J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

cost and service benefits relative to some peers. Overall, we remain positive on the

continuation of idiosyncratic opportunities to expand margins and generate strong

Key Changes (FYE Dec)incrementals in 2H26 and 2027, which should support significant free cash flow