AmBev: Post 2Q26 Update: Estimate Cuts on Weaker Volumes and Pricing; Maintain N

Research evidence excerpt

AmBev: Post 2Q26 Update: Estimate Cuts on Weaker Volumes and Pricing; Maintain N

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

30 July 2026

AmBev

Post 2Q26 Update: Estimate Cuts on Weaker Volumes

and Pricing; Maintain N

We are cutting estimates for Ambev following a disappointing quarter in terms of LatAm Food & Beverages and

volumes overall and weaker than expected average prices, on the back of a weaker Agribusiness

mix and a more competitive industry in our view, as highlighted by our price Lucas Ferreira AC

tracking tool. This was partially offset by lower than expected COGS in Brazil (55-11) 4950-3629

Beer, which explained part of the EBITDA margin beat for the quarter. We have lucas.x.ferreira@jpmorgan.com

reduced our 2026e EPS estimate by 3% despite the quarterly beat as we incorporate Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

normalized FX effects in the financial result lines as guided by mgmt during the Larissa Perez

latest conference call. For Brazil Beer, we now estimate volumes to grow 3% y/y (55-11) 4950-6400

larissa.perez@jpmchase.com

in 3Q26 and 1% in 4Q26, or +2.4% y/y for the full year, versus +3.6% y/y Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

previously. Our estimates are now 2% below consensus for both EBITDA and Net Froylan Mendez

Income in 2026e. We have also slightly increased our WACC following a 40bps (52-55) 5540-9482

increase to the equity risk premium. All in, the new DCF price target is R$16.5 froylan.mendez@jpmchase.com

(from R$17/sh. previously), and our target P/E is 16.4x 2028e, which implies J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

Morgan Grupo Financiero

15.2x for 2027e, or a 13% discount to where ABI is trading. We currently see

Ambev trading at 14.4x P/E 2027e, which we view as close to fair value and at a

6% premium to global brewers.