India Oil and Gas: June oil data – not out of the woods yet

Research evidence excerpt

India Oil and Gas: June oil data – not out of the woods yet

purchases has shrunk materially

(Figure 11LandedRusiandiscountoncrudepurchasesvs.thelandedpricefromothercountries-PremiumonRusiancrudesemstohavecomeofvs.April). Estimated Indian crude inventories have rebounded. Indian

imports from the US have fallen, as the US is exporting less (Figure 14USoilexports).

• Local oil consumption is down: Total petroleum product consumption is

down between 3-6% YoY for the last three months (Figure 15Totalpetroleumproductconsumption-downYoYsincethestartoftheconflict). Demand for all

products - other than for petrol / diesel - contracted YoY in June (Figure 16PetroleumproductconsumptionbridgebetwenJune25andJune26-dieselandpetrolonlypositivedriversofdemand).

LPG availability remains challenged; being down 14% YoY in June (Figure 21LPG

consumption-down15%YoYinJune;upfromMaylevels) - despite stronger local production (Figure 17IndiaLPGproduction-rampingupsinceMarch;up41%YoYinJune). Domestic supplies of LPG

remain down c.11% YoY in June (Figure 22ChangeinLPGconsumptionbysegment-Domesticsuplymakesupc.90%oftotalconsumptionandsawan1%YoYdeclineinJunevs18%YoYdeclinefornon-domesticand82%forbulksegments). Even though retail prices were

raised mid-May, June petrol and diesel consumption were up 6-7% YoY.

• Why is the shortage of industrial oil not showing up in economic data?

High frequency data for the Indian economy remains healthy despite some

deficit in industrial oil and LPG (and despite higher costs). We estimate the

total monthly primary energy availability for India (Figure 5EstimatesoftotalprimaryenergyconsumptioninIndia-stilupinJune2026). This was weak

in March / April, but has rebounded sharply in May / June. The YoY decline