PRADA Group: A really healthy delivery

Research evidence excerpt

PRADA Group: A really healthy delivery

Chiara Battistini AC Europe Equity Research

(39-02) 8895-2700 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

chiara.x.battistini@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Prada is a key luxury goods player in Fashion & Leather Goods.

Its portfolio of brands includes Prada, Miu Miu, Versace,

Church’s, Car Shoe and Marchesi 1824. Following heavy

investments across the group between 2016 and 2019, Prada and

Miu Miu have been experiencing very solid momentum since

2021, benefitting from sustained product newness at the former

and high desirability at the latter, despite a multi-year very tough

comp. Such solid trends is driving the ongoing recovery of sales

densities with profitability following suit. We think there is

YTD 1m 3m 12m further potential for both brands to continue to extend their

Abs -15.8% -4.6% 9.2% -19.0% presence and lift their financial KPIs, increasingly catching up

Rel -16.7% -17.6% 8.9% -21.7%

with the other mega-brands in the luxury arena. While the

Company Data Versace acquisition adds execution risk in the short term and will

Shares O/S (mn) 2,559 require the Group to invest in restoring brand desirability and

52-week range (HK$) 52.00-34.52 profitability, we think Prada Group still offers some of the most

Market cap ($ mn) 12,366.20

Exchange rate 7.84 attractive fundamentals and valuation in the luxury sector, with

Free float (%) 20.0% earnings growth in the core Group continuing to run in double-

3M ADV (mn) 2.74 digits. We rate the stock Overweight.

3M ADV ($ mn) 13.1

Volatility (90 Day) 38 Valuation

Index HSI

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 15|9|1 Our Dec-27 DCF target price is based on FY26-FY30 explicit

forecasts, medium-term growth of 5.5%, terminal growth of