Arbor Realty Trust: JPM 2Q26 Earnings Scorecard – Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Arbor Realty Trust: JPM 2Q26 Earnings Scorecard – Preview

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

30 July 2026

Arbor Realty Trust Neutral

ABR, ABR US

JPM 2Q26 Earnings Scorecard – Preview Price (29 Jul 26):$5.08

Consumer Finance

ABR will report 2Q26 results on Friday (7/31) BMO and host an earnings call at Richard Shane AC

10:00 AM ET. This note provides a summary of JPM and consensus estimates for (1-415) 315-6701

KPIs. richard.b.shane@jpmorgan.com

Hong Zhang

Estimates: (1-212) 622-6416

hongliang.zhang@jpmorgan.com

• We estimate 2Q26 distributable EPS of $0.14, above consensus of $0.03, up J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

from $0.07 Q/Q. We project net interest income of $44.4M, with total other

income of $59.1M, up from $57.5M Q/Q.

• We estimate 2Q26 BVPS of $11.17, down from $11.25 Q/Q.

• We estimate 2Q26 agency originations of $895.7M, up from $707.6M Q/Q,

with structured originations of $825M, up from $767.6M Q/Q.

Key Issues for 2Q26:

• The primary focus for investors remains the pace and effectiveness of ABR's

credit resolutions, particularly elevated non-accruals and the growing REO

portfolio, which could face headwinds from higher-for-longer rates and softer

transaction volumes. With shares trading at a deep discount to book value, the

potential for opportunistic share repurchases (funded in part by the recent

convertible notes issuance) will also be closely watched.

Other Issues:

• Valuation: ABR now trades at a significant discount to book value, in line with

the broader CREIT sector, as persistent credit headwinds have weighed on

investor sentiment and sector multiples. While ABR’s capital-light agency

business previously justified a premium to peers, this advantage is currently

being offset by ongoing credit concerns and elevated non-accruals in the