Nomura Research Institute (4307): 1Q results: No surprises, but outlook for order environment and earnings bright

Research evidence excerpt

Nomura Research Institute (4307): 1Q results: No surprises, but outlook for order environment and earnings bright

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Asia Pacific Equity Research

Matthew Henderson AC 31 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

(81-3) 6736-8831

matthew.henderson@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Nomura Research Institute (4307) (Overweight; Price Target: ¥5,500)

Investment Thesis

Compared with domestic competitors, NRI has (1) a higher operating profit margin, (2)

higher ROIC and ROE, and (3) greater shareholder returns (40% dividend payout ratio plus

occasional share buybacks). The company is also notable for its highly specialized and

proven think-tank, consulting, and IT solutions capabilities. NRI is currently promoting a

business model (“consolution”) that combines the problem-solving and proposal

capabilities of the consulting segment and the technological capabilities of the IT solutions

segment. However, this effort has not yielded any notable results in overseas markets, and

our sense is that the market has a low opinion of the business model. We expect NRI to retain

its share price premium relative to the domestic IT services sector average, and we anticipate

earnings growth through profitability improvement with its AI strategy, as well as growth

in consulting, financial IT solutions, and security services. We rate the shares Overweight.

Valuation

Our end-2026 price target of ¥5,500 is based on our FY2027 EPS estimate and a P/E of

around 22x. This multiple reflects the stock’s average P/E range since 2015.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

• Greater-than-expected improvement in earnings from overseas operations

• Shareholder returns in excess of market expectations