Calbee (2229) 1Q results: Above our estimates on cost factors, but focus is on Middle East impact in 2Q

Research evidence excerpt

Calbee (2229) 1Q results: Above our estimates on cost factors, but focus is on Middle East impact in 2Q

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

31 July 2026

Calbee (2229) Underweight

2229.T, 2229 JP

1Q results: Above our estimates on cost factors, but Price (30 Jul 26):¥3,119

focus is on Middle East impact in 2Q Price Target (Dec-26):¥2,600

Neutral: 1Q FY2026 operating profit was ¥6.6 billion, up 24% YoY (+¥1.3 Japan Equity Research

billion) and above our estimate of ¥5.7 billion (Bloomberg consensus estimate:

Food, Beverage, and Tobacco

¥6.2 billion). The overshoot was caused not by sales but by a difference in raw

materials cost and promotional cost assumptions and was not particularly Satoshi Fujiwara AC

surprising. While the impact of the worsening Middle East conflict was limited in (81-3) 6736-8652

satoshi.fujiwara@jpmorgan.com

1Q, the profit reduction impact is expected to be the largest in 2Q, so we need to

Hideto Takahashi

watch this. However, Calbee plans to raise prices in October-November to offset (81-3) 6736-8638

the cost increase from the Middle East impact, so we believe FY2026 operating hideto.takahashi@jpmorgan.com

profit guidance of ¥26.2 billion is achievable (our estimate is ¥26.6 billion). JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

• Japan: 1Q domestic sales were ¥63.0 billion, up 2% YoY and in line with our

estimate of ¥63.1 billion. In contrast, operating profit was ¥5.7 billion, up ¥1.2

billion YoY and above our estimate of ¥4.6 billion, mainly because the cost

increase due to the worsening Middle East conflict was limited in 1Q. Calbee

expects to offset the cost increase with price hikes in 2H, but expects a larger

profit reduction impact in 2Q. Another difference with our estimates was a ¥0.6

billion YoY reduction in promotional costs.