DomRep: Fiscal accounts and financing: Approaching the finish line

Research evidence excerpt

DomRep: Fiscal accounts and financing: Approaching the finish line

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

30 July 2026

DomRep: Fiscal accounts and

financing

Approaching the finish line

• Central government deficit tracking at 0.6% of GDP through May, in line with Emerging Markets Economic and

last year Policy Research

• While the subsidy bill is higher, it is being offset by cuts elsewhere Katherine Marney (1-212) 834-2285

• We expect the deficit to finish the year at 3.5% of GDP, above the target of 3.2% katherine.v.marney@jpmorgan.com

of GDP J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• The financing plan is almost complete, though more external issuance possible

to cover January maturity

Central government balance and financing data for the Dominican Republic are

available through May (see Tables 1 and 2). The central government deficit year-

to-date is tracking at about 0.6% of GDP, in line with the same period last year

(Figure 1). The same applies to the primary surplus, which is running at 0.8% of

GDP through May. The growth rates in gross revenues and expenditures are closely

tracking each other at 7%oya. Current expenditure growth has stayed contained at

6%oya, aided by wages. The result comes despite the spike in global oil prices,

which we expected to add to the subsidy bill and worsen the deficit. While subsidies

show the largest annual growth, up 36.6%oya, this is so far being offset by cuts to

other current spending (Table 1).

Figure 1: DomRep central government fiscal balance

% of GDP

-1

-2

2022 2023 2024 -3

2025 2026

-4

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: BCRD and J.P.Morgan

DomRep has only passed through a portion of the fuel price hikes to consumers,

balancing the inflation impact against fiscal costs. Fuel prices are up about 11%