Macro Corporate Spotlight: An update on macro issues for corporate treasurers going into 2H26

Research evidence excerpt

Macro Corporate Spotlight: An update on macro issues for corporate treasurers going into 2H26

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

30 July 2026

Macro Corporate Spotlight

An update on macro issues for corporate treasurers

going into 2H26

1. Has the Middle East conflict produced a change in reaction functions by Global Macro Research

ACcentral banks? The front end of most DM rates curves have exhibited strong Luis Oganes

directionality with respect to energy prices since the conflcit broke out, with (44-20) 7742-1420

markets pricing in a more hawkish reaction from central banks as oil prices have luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com

risen. The Fed’s tolerance for above-target inflation appears to be waning. Page 3. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Jay Barry AC

2. What might the future of the Strait of Hormuz look like? For decades, the (1-212) 834-4951

john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com

prospect of Iran disrupting the Strait of Hormuz has been framed in military terms: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

mines, missiles, and naval confrontation. But there is another, more subtle way to

Natasha Kaneva

exert leverage over the world’s most important oil chokepoint. Rather than closing (1-212) 834-3175

the strait outright, Iran appears to be seeking to regulate it. Page 5. natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

3. How is the oil market being reshaped? Once flows through Hormuz resume, Gregory C. Shearer

the market could pivot from an acute supply shock to a rapid supply rebound, which (44-20) 7134-8161

may outpace a still-fragile demand recovery. The conflict may accelerate gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

investment in resilience, including expanded bypass pipeline capacity, larger

Meera Chandan ACstrategic storage buffers, and faster inventory rebuilding. Page 6.