Brazil: Unemployment slightly higher in June, with signs of exhaustion in labor supply

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil: Unemployment slightly higher in June, with signs of exhaustion in labor supply

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

30 July 2026

Brazil

Unemployment slightly higher in June, with signs of

exhaustion in labor supply

• The unemployment rate was slightly higher than we expected, with the jobless EM, Economic and Policy Research

rate moving back up in our monthly proxy Vinicius Moreira

• Yesterday’s formal jobs report still suggests solid labor demand, but job (55-11)vinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com4950-3195

creation is slowing amid a low unemployment rate

Mirella Sampaio

• Real wage growth has declined over the past three months, the first time since (55-11) 4950-3289

the pandemic shock mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

Gustavo Ribeiro

In our assessment, Brazil’s labor market continues to show signs of exhausted labor (55-11) 4950-4059

supply and wage growth amid historically tight conditions. The June gustavo.ribeiro@jpmorgan.com

unemployment rate came in at 5.4% nsa, matching the consensus estimate but Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

0.1pp above our call. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the jobless rate held steady

at 5.4%, broadly unchanged since February, while our monthly proxy rose from

5.4% in May to 5.6% in June (Figure 1).

Despite the recent drift higher in the jobless rate, measures of labor demand remain

solid, with the quits-rate-based firm-side unemployment rate moving down

recently (Figure 2). The latest data suggest limited job generation and labor supply

growth. Employment was essentially flat, reflecting softening services job growth,

consistent with the pattern over the past three months and with the broader

slowdown in economic activity, while the participation rate also remained stable

(Figures 3 and 4).