BMW US Capital: Mixed 2Q26 Results; Continued Pressure in China

Research evidence excerpt

BMW US Capital: Mixed 2Q26 Results; Continued Pressure in China

volume growth in Europe and the U.S.

will not offset the sales landscape in China and Asia Pacific as the automobile market

contracts, citing downward market forecast revisions by the China Passenger Car

Association. BMW expects a slight decline in Automotive deliveries on a y/y basis given

the global market situation.

OUR TAKE:

• Mixed 2Q26 results. BMW’s 2Q26 headline results were mixed and declined

meaningfully on a y/y basis, but consolidated and Automotive margins exhibited modest

outperformance versus consensus and company-defined Automotive free cash flow was

above consensus expectations. The company reaffirmed the 2026 guidance as provided

in June, including a slight y/y decline in deliveries, a significant y/y decrease in Group

EBT, an Automotive EBIT margin of 1-3%, and Automotive free cash flow above €2.5

billion. We remain focused on BMW’s ratings trajectory (now on negative outlook at

Moody’s and S&P) as Moody’s highlighted the potential for additional negative rating

pressure if BMW’s performance trends towards the lower end of its updated 2026

guidance and there are delayed expectations for a recovery. China continues to serve as

a meaningful headwind, and we expect ongoing difficulty for OEMs competing in China

given the intense competition and consumer demand pressures. We remain Underweight

BMW US Capital at the issuer level, trading only ~20bp wide to higher-rated TOYOTA

and ~10bp tight to HYNMTR in the 5y part of the curve. Risks to our rating include

macroeconomic improvement that provides alleviation to the auto consumer (including

in China), raw material cost volatility, improved growth outlook for European