Digital Asset Monthly: Lack of catalyst

Research evidence excerpt

Digital Asset Monthly: Lack of catalyst

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30 Jul 2026 07:35:15 ET │ 17 pages

Digital Asset Monthly

Lack of catalyst

CITI'S TAKE

Alex Saunders AC

The digital asset market lacks a clear catalyst as weak sentiment persists +1-212-723-1058

following the major October 2025 liquidation event. We observe that ETF alexander.saunders@citi.com

flows, a primary price driver, have reversed and are now negative year-to-

date for both BTC and ETH. Futures open interest has fallen sharply and Vinh Vo

funding rates remain low, indicating reduced demand for leverage. Total +44-20-75-086-717

market capitalization and trading volumes have resumed their decline, vinh.vo@citi.com

while crypto’s correlation to US equities remains elevated, exposing the

asset class to broader macro risks. Furthermore, ETH staking yields remain With thanks to

low and activity subdued. The US market structure bill is highly unlikely to Irem Sen

see a Senate vote before an August recess, Polymarket probabilities of

passage this year have declined to 28%.

Weakening Market Momentum and Macro Correlation — Crypto-equity

correlations have strengthened, anchoring digital assets to broader macro

sentiment. We note the total crypto market cap has resumed its decline from a 2025

peak above $4tn, with trading volumes also trending lower. This fading momentum

follows a period of geopolitics-driven volatility. Bitcoin's market cap continues to

rival large US stocks, but soggy price action and legislative uncertainty present

challenges.

ETF Outflows and Deleveraging Signal Investor Caution — ETF flows, a key price

driver, have reversed sharply since the October 2025 liquidation event. We have seen

BTC ETF net flows turn negative year-to-date, while ETH ETFs have seen outflows

of -$1.8bn YTD.