CEE: Softer-than-expected growth in 2Q26: We now expect the CNB to deliver the next hike in November only

Research evidence excerpt

CEE: Softer-than-expected growth in 2Q26: We now expect the CNB to deliver the next hike in November only

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

30 July 2026

CEE: Softer-than-expected growth

in 2Q26

We now expect the CNB to deliver the next hike in

November only

• The early releases of Czech and Hungarian 2Q GDP growth came on the EM, Economic and Policy Research

soft side vs. expectations Jose Cerveira

• CEE has underperformed in the European context (44-20)jose.a.cerveira@jpmorgan.com7742-3556

J.P. Morgan Securities plc• Czech growth came meaningfully below expectations, likely due to weaker

investment

• Overall, in 1H26 Czech growth has shifted to a lower gear...

• ...an argument for the CNB to delay the next hike, which we now see in

November only (August previously)

• Hungarian growth also disappointed in 2Q26, slowing meaningfully from

1Q, likely with some impact from volatile agricultural output

• Although softer-than-expected, Hungarian growth remains better than in

recent years

• Softer growth could push the NBH to be more dovish, but this is offset by

weaker Forint and risks to CPI from higher fuel prices, so our NBH path

is unchanged

CEE growth not bad, but softer than anticipated. The first reads on 2Q26 GDP

point to softer-than-anticipated momentum in CEE economic growth. In both

countries where data has been published this morning, the Czech Republic and

Hungary, the economy expanded by 0.4%q/q sa in 2Q26 (or 1.6%q/q saar - figure

1), which although not terrible, comes in considerably below our forecasts. There

is a sort of reversal of fortunes going on: for the Czech economy, the last two

quarters have been the weakest in a long while, whereas for Hungary (despite the

lower-than-predicted reading) they are the best the country has seen in recent years.