Ampol 1H26 Trading Update - At the earnings summit, a return to ‘normal‘ will take some time

Research evidence excerpt

Ampol 1H26 Trading Update - At the earnings summit, a return to ‘normal‘ will take some time

992 1,232 24.2%

bbl) but see the potential for geopolitical unrest to keep refining margins Normalised Profit - 27E (A$ mn) 575 719 25.0%

elevated above US$20/bbl or more given recent developments in the Middle

East. An easing of the conflict will flow through the refining industry with an Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

extended lag, given the global and regional supply chain issues that will need Normalised Profit (A$ mn)

to be navigated and the need to rebuild inventory of refined product. While we 2025A 2026E 2027E

H1 180 847 370

do not expect margins to surpass 2Q26’s ~US$31/bbl, a return to “normal” H2 249 384 349

industry conditions is likely several months away. FY 429 1,232 719

• Convenience retail growing earnings at a double-digit pace. The outlook Style Exposure

for Convenience is also robust, with volume growth of 2.4% and a more

moderate tobacco headwind, better product availability and U-GO roll-out all

supporting growth. Ampol remains a clear leader in Convenience Retail

execution in Australia, this gives us confidence in the longer-term trajectory

post-EG integration, as Ampol can bring their execution skill-set to an under-

earning network. We continue to see upside beyond the acquired earnings and

synergies.

• Balance sheet to return to the target range in 2027. Headline gearing in 2026

is highly volatile, given unsustainably high EBITDA, offset by debt funding of

the EG Australia acquisition, prior to a 12 month earnings contribution. On our

forecasts, Ampol should see CY27 gearing (2.37x) back within the 2.0 - 2.5x

range, which is a better reflection of underlying gearing, even if prior to full

run-rate synergies from the EG acquisition.