China: Policy continuity now, party discipline next

Research evidence excerpt

China: Policy continuity now, party discipline next

Tingting Ge Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A N(852) 2800-0143 30 July 2026

tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com

External openness emphasized despite rising geopolitical headwinds. The Politburo

called for expanding mutually beneficial international economic cooperation, accelerating

services trade, promoting more balanced trade development, improving overseas investment

support systems, and continuing efforts to attract foreign capital. The reference to more

balanced trade growth appears particularly notable against the backdrop of growing debates

over global imbalances, lingering US tariff uncertainty, and escalating EU-China trade

tensions.

Risk management continues to dominate the property and financial agenda. The

Politburo reiterated the need to stabilize the property market, implement the existing local

government debt resolution package, advance reforms of smaller financial institutions, and

strengthen capital market resilience and confidence. There was no mention of destocking

programs or urban-renewal initiatives. Taken together, the message suggests policymakers

remain focused on balance sheet repair and risk reduction rather than reigniting a property-led

growth cycle.

The October 5th Plenum will focus on party discipline and governance. The Politburo

announced that the 5th Plenum will center on advancing comprehensive and strict Party

governance, reinforcing Party discipline, supervision, and governance effectiveness. From

a market perspective, the key implication is not a new stimulus package but the strengthening

of the institutional framework governing cadre evaluation, appointments, and policy

execution ahead of the next round of local leadership turnover. Historically, Party-