US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

US MKT INTEL VIEW – initially published July 27 here, which includes supporting charts

We remain Tactically Bullish. Our colleagues in Positioning Intel tell us that their Tactical Positioning

Monitor is now flashing a buy-signal, which has historically meant material upside for the SPX, but they do

caution on crowded positioning, especially in Semis, and uncertainty from AI and Middle East as near-term

challenges. We see near-term tailwinds come from (i) lower bond yields, (ii) weaker USD, (iii) continued

earnings delivery, and (iv) reduced vol. These tailwinds are driven by a decrease in kinetic hostilities in the

Middle East and a hold by the Fed.

The biggest headwind stems from AI / Tech segment with capex maintenance / boost no longer an automatic

win for AI infra plays, including Semis. Some of this concern emanates from Credit markets, though

hyperscalers still have significant debt issuance capacity, perhaps as much as $50bn. If you scroll down to

the “Comparisons to 2008” section, there is more color on the Credit component to the discussion but fears

surrounding the ability to fund capex seem unfounded. Our colleague Shreeti Kapa sketches out the math:

assuming $6T in total AI capex from now through 2030, $50bn / 1 GW of compute, with annualized revenue

of $100 - $110bn. This implies that AI model providers would need $1.8T in revenue in 2030. Is this

possible? Yes. SPX total revenue for FY25 was $17T and growing at 5% through 2030 equates to ~$21.5T,

so the $1.8T needed is ~8.5% of total revenues.

• MONETIZATION MENU – We make no changes WoW as we think the market is setting up for a Tech

rebound as questions surrounding capex, funding sources, demand, and AI efficacy are answered