Microsoft: F4Q26 Review: Finding the Right Balance in Growth (Azure Acceleration), Margins and Capex to Drive a Stronger Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Microsoft: F4Q26 Review: Finding the Right Balance in Growth (Azure Acceleration), Margins and Capex to Drive a Stronger Outlook

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

30 July 2026

Microsoft

F4Q26 Review: Finding the Right Balance in Growth Overweight

(Azure Acceleration), Margins and Capex to Drive a MSFT, MSFT US

Stronger Outlook Price (29 Jul 26):$390.54

Price Target (Dec-27):$550.00

Microsoft results and outlook stand out, in our view, for the balance that the Software - Large Cap / Mid & Small

company is able to demonstrate, in particular relative to other hyperscalers/ AI Cap

infrastructure builders and in line with what investors are likely looking for, in Samik Chatterjee, CFA AC

relation to acceleration of revenue growth (i.e. Azure) while managing margins (1-212) 622-0798

(expected to moderate by less than 100 bps in FY27 after expanding in FY26) and samik.x.chatterjee@jpmorgan.com

capex investments (wherein the company is maintaining CY26). Not to be Arti Vula, CFA

underappreciated as well, Microsoft is showing momentum with AI across its apps (1-415) 315-5919

business, including the doubling net new seat adds for Copilot in F4Q vs. F3Q, in arti.vula@jpmchase.com

part driving the guidance for M365 Commercial Cloud growth to accelerate Jaiden R Patel

(1-212) 270-6953

through FY27. FQ4 (June-ended) total revenue expanded 18% y/y or 17% CC (vs. jaiden.patel@jpmchase.com

consensus 15% y/y and 14% CC) and operating income grew 18% (vs. consensus

Brian Hyska

14%), helping with modest margin expansion to 45.1% (vs. consensus 44.5%) as (1-212) 622-2883

operating leverage was the primary driver to offset the gross margin moderation on brian.hyska@jpmchase.com

account of higher Azure mix. Total CapEx (which includes finance leases) tracked Mashu Nishi