Fair Isaac: An Atypical 3QF26 EPS Miss; New Scoring Models Progress as Mortgage Competition Questions Remain

Research evidence excerpt

Fair Isaac: An Atypical 3QF26 EPS Miss; New Scoring Models Progress as Mortgage Competition Questions Remain

Alexander E.M. Hess, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-8331 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

alexander.hess@jpmorgan.com

Taking a big-picture view, mortgage credit score market structure questions and

VantageScore competitive dynamics were in-focus on the 3QF26 earnings call. We

understand why: VantageScore is now being used by lenders to furnish mortgages to

Fannie and Freddie, data is available that allows investors to track share (a la our report

on June data), and VantageScore plus its bureau owners have been vocal about the

score’s trajectory (we are hosting VantageScore within hours of writing this; register

here!). All that stated, based on what we know we do not gauge that VantageScore

had any impact on 3QF26 results or the 4QF26 guide. Mortgage revenues basically

matched our JPMe in 3QF26, up +96% y/y in the quarter. Additionally, guidance from

Equifax (EFX; OW) and TransUnion (TRU; OW) pointed to mortgage industry volumes

slowing for the balance of calendar 2026. Although we are watching this dynamic

closely, we gauge that “VantageScore only” mortgage credit activity remains quite

limited currently, as neither TransUnion nor Equifax flagged any meaningful changes

to FICO passthrough dynamics (which flatter revenue and drag margins) in their recent

earnings prints. Both Equifax and TransUnion disclose their FICO COGS associated

with mortgage revenues, which were up +98% y/y in aggregate during the latest quarter

by our math, closely tracking FICO’s reported revenue growth.

• The market prepares for FICO Score 10T: FICO now has 70 lenders in its FICO

Score 10T Adopter Program, up from 55 last quarter and 30 one year prior. These