Oil Markets Weekly: From chokepoint to checkbook

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Markets Weekly: From chokepoint to checkbook

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

30 July 2026

Oil Markets Weekly

From chokepoint to checkbook

Iran’s approach to the Strait of Hormuz is often framed in binary terms—either the Global Commodities Research

waterway is kept open or closed. Increasingly, however, Iran appears to be Natasha Kaneva

pursuing a different strategy: not closing the strait, but regulating its use. (1-212) 834-3175

natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com

Precedence suggests that the strategy could be legally defensible (Port Authority, Lyuba Savinova

19 May 2026). Working jointly with Oman, which shares jurisdiction over the (1-212) 270-3781

Strait, Iran could argue that vessels transiting the strait should pay not for the right lyuba.savinova@jpmchase.com

to pass, but for specific services rendered, such as navigational safety, vessel traffic Artem Fakhretdinov

management, security escorts, emergency response, and environmental (1-212) 272-1839

artem.fakhretdinov@jpmorgan.com

protection. By structuring the measure as a service fee rather than a transit toll, and JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

by coordinating with Oman as the other littoral state, Iran could propose a legal

framework that appears consistent with international maritime law. The objective

would be to secure at least tacit support from the United Nations and the

International Maritime Organization by emphasizing that the charges are non-

discriminatory, linked to identifiable services, and intended to enhance the safety

and environmental integrity of one of the world’s most strategically important

waterways.

What makes this strategy particularly intriguing is that it is neither legally

novel nor without precedent.

The key reference point is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the