JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

Research evidence excerpt

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

30 July 2026

The FOMC left rates on hold as expected with three dissents for hikes, and our Emerging Markets Corporate

economists now forecast one rate hike in December this year (link). They note Strategy

that the statement was almost unchanged relative to the June meeting, and think the Yang-Myung Hong AC

press conference raised questions about the new chair’s credibility in delivering (1-212) 834-4274

lower inflation. Our economists believe this will add some urgency for the rest of ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

the committee to act on its mandate, and pulled forward the next rate hike from J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

2H27 to December this year with policy rates on hold at 3.75-4.0% thereafter. They Alisa Meyers

find September is clearly a risk if inflation heats up again soon. (1-212) 834-9151

alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

The UST curve twist steepened with credit spreads tightening modestly Dhawal U Mehta

though not enough to entirely offset the rate move. The 30-year UST in (91-22) 6157 3779

particular rose more than 10bp on the day to 5.2% which is the highest level since dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

2007. CEMBI BD tightened -3bp on the day to 163bp and is +1bp so far this week J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

with +0.1% WTD return. We have been of the view that CEMBI should deliver

better resilience against rising rates given the higher breakeven and also hold up

better than other credit asset classes due to the shorter duration (link). This has so

far been the case with both CEMBI BD IG and HY outperforming US HG and HY

YTD, both on spread and returns.

Major thematic publications

• EM Corporate Demand Technicals: Where in the world did MidEast corporate

bonds go?