Australia Rates Insights: Rates - Asia ex-Japan

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Rates Insights: Rates - Asia ex-Japan

Global Markets Research

28 July 2026Australia Rates Insights

Rates - Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

RBA governor maintains a hawkish tilt Asia Rates Strategy

Andrew Ticehurst - NAL

Our key views remain unchanged, and we remain paid Australia 3m1y andrew.ticehurst@nomura.com

versus US3m1y. +61 2 8062 8611

• A speech from the RBA governor today contained a few dovish comments but still

tilted in a hawkish direction on balance, with the governor reiterating that the board

was prepared to increase the cash rate further, if necessary.

• Our central case remains unchanged; we think the RBA rate hike cycle has most likely

concluded, but we do not expect it to reach this conclusion or acknowledge this for at

least several months.

• On market strategy, we remain paidAU3m1yversusUS3m1y, noting this position has

moved a little against us today.

Anika Foundation speech: Monetary Policy in an Era of Shocks

The governor today delivered a speech on “Monetary Policy in an Era of Shocks”. Overall,

we would not describe this speech as dovish; we think the hawkish thoughts outweighed

dovish ones. The governor also reiterated that the board was prepared to tighten again, if

necessary, indicating a continuing mild tightening stance.

That said, the market appears to have initially latched onto two newer thoughts, which we

would put on the dovish side of the ledger: 1) that the housing market was weaker than

expected, and 2) that the labour market was also a bit weaker than expected.

However, against this, the governor reiterated that demand was still running ahead of

supply, and that a period of subdued growth and some further easing in the labour market

was required to bring inflation back to target. The governor also noted on multiple