Otsuka Holdings

Research evidence excerpt

Otsuka Holdings

Global Markets Research

28 July 2026Otsuka Holdings

4578.T 4578 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN PHARMACEUTICALS

Upward revision to guidance mainly due to delays in launch of Ratinggenerics Neutral

Target price JPY 11,000Quick Note

Closing price

27 July 2026 JPY 11,325First impression positive: Company raises its 26/12 H1 guidance to above our

forecasts (Note: Quick Note reports are not a

At 8:30am on 28 July, Otsuka Holdings announced that it was raising its 26/12 H1 vehicle for changes to ratings, target

guidance to reflect favorable performance during the period. It raised its sales projection prices, or earnings forecasts)

from ¥1.22trn to ¥1.33trn (our forecast: ¥1.27trn; 27 July QUICK consensus: ¥1.26trn) and

its operating profit projection from ¥175.0bn to ¥278.0bn (our forecast: ¥244.0bn;

consensus: ¥235.0bn), exceeding our assumptions and leaving a positive impression.

Main driver of the upward adjustment is delays in entry of competing generics Research Analysts

The company cited delays in the entry of competing generic drugs, solid performance of Japan pharmaceuticals &

key products, and yen depreciation as factors behind the upward revision. We assume healthcare

that Apotex and Alkem will launch additional generic versions of Jynarque (for autosomal- Hiroyuki Matsubara, Ph.D. - NSC

dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD)) in Jul–Sep 2026. While growth in royalty hiroyuki.matsubara@nomura.com

revenues slowed, sales of the two drugs licensed out to Novartis (Kisqali for breast cancer +81 3 6703 1240

and Pluvicto for prostate cancer) rose 43% y-y (for details about results, see our 22 July

2026 report Japanpharmaceuticalsandbiotechindustry).

Voyxact's eGFR results slated for release on 4 August JST