G10 FX EUR

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX EUR

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 30 July 2026

G10 FX

EUR I guess let’s discuss last night in two parts. The relief on the decision itself whilst there being

three dissents points to a market that whilst not believing was desperate enough to chase the tail

(must have been some external consultants pushing the case pretty hard), you could feel the

angst in the afternoon yesterday, so that did somewhat surprise me the kneejerk lower in the

dollar whilst not large held. On the curve steepening after the presser, the funny thing to me is

that whilst there was a clear reluctance to push ahead and hike from Warsh despite his insistence

on doing the right thing in delivering price stability the market took him as dovish when the

reality was this was not far from what I perceived he said first time round when the

argument was he was hawkish! I refer to what I wrote in June (“For me whilst there was

insistence on price stability, I felt the setting up of task forces and looking at reliability of

alternative data was an attempt to hold off hikes (setting up and reporting findings takes some

time?) and to try and justify why inflation might be at or around target rather than

above.”). Anyway now this is done obviously we have payrolls in a week’s time so whether the

market really has appetite here is a question given July hasn’t been particularly straightforward,

plus also with his reference to Jackson Hole should put the focus heavily on the symposium as a

risk point to wait for.

Is the steepening a forewarning of severe dollar weakness am unsure, clearly with Middle East

escalation fears and a centre of the Fed Committee that you would think do the right thing if