Verisure PLC: Q2‘26: Broadly in line

Research evidence excerpt

Verisure PLC: Q2‘26: Broadly in line

Jane L Sparrow AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 3493-7101 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jane.sparrow@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Verisure PLC (Overweight; Price Target: €13.00)

Investment Thesis

Verisure is a high-quality, subscription-based business with recurring revenues and low

attrition rates, led by an experienced management team. The highly profitable existing

customer base funds investment in new customers, which, given the low attrition rates, in

turn funds further growth in new subscribers. We believe the combination of a proven

business model, significant headroom for market penetration, accompanied by operational

gearing and improving cash generation, supports double-digit organic EPS growth and

additional capital returns into the medium term – we expect the shares to start to fully reflect

this attractive combination as confidence builds in delivery post-IPO.

Valuation

We value Verisure on a DCF basis, a measure that we believe reflects the long-term growth

and cash-flow generating potential of a company. Our peer group for valuation

benchmarking is wide – its business model differs meaningfully from those of many listed

security services players both operationally and geographically and we thus also include

companies from outside the security sector. We include selected Business Services

companies (Rentokil, Experian and Rollins, ie companies with recurring revenues, a large

B2C component to their revenues and attractive margins) as well as the ‘Nordic

compounders’ which have long growth track records. Verisure trades on a CY2027E PE of

16.6x, EV/EBIT 13.9x and FCF yield of 3.4%. The average CY2026E EV/EBIT in Security

Services is 9.3x, Business Services 15.9x, and Nordic compounders 24.6x.