Anglo American: H1’26 First Take: Group EBITDA in line, or +5% beat vs consensus on Continuing Operations basis

Research evidence excerpt

Anglo American: H1’26 First Take: Group EBITDA in line, or +5% beat vs consensus on Continuing Operations basis

Dominic O'Kane AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-6729 30 July 2026 C A Z E N O V E

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Anglo American (Underweight; Price Target: 3,350p)

Investment Thesis

Our Anglo American recommendation is Underweight. In 2024 Anglo commenced a major

corporate restructuring involving: sale of its Coal assets (completed), de-merger of Anglo

Platinum, divestment of its Diamonds and Nickel divisions. This will leave an Anglo

streamlined along Copper and high-grade Iron Ore. It also is underway to merge with Teck

Resources (covered by JPM US Analyst Bill Peterson). Anglo is trading close to our fair

value, however we remain cautious on Anglo’s near-term earnings risk, particularly where

the portfolio is exposed to higher freight and cost inflation, and where operational

uncertainties could emerge (e.g., at Collahuasi if the desalination plant suspension is

prolonged and begins to impact recoveries). Additionally, we expect weaker earnings in

Diamonds and sale/exit remains challenging.

Valuation

We utilise a granular, sum-of-the-parts Dec-27 price target methodology. Our Fair Value is

calculated as the average of: (1) 0.9x NPV across each individual division; and (2)

individual divisional EV/EBITDA target multiples for 2028E EBITDA (ranging between

Copper at 9.0x, Kumba Iron Ore at 5.5x). Our examination of Fair Value seeks to provide

investors with insights into Anglo American’s intrinsic equity value across its divisions,

reflecting long-dated asset value (NPV) on comparable company trading multiples (EV/

EBITDA). Our valuation method is calculated from Anglo American’s attributable cash