Domino‘s Pizza Enterprises Ltd: FY26 Trading Update - Investment in franchisee profitability to underpin return to growth in FY28e

Research evidence excerpt

Domino‘s Pizza Enterprises Ltd: FY26 Trading Update - Investment in franchisee profitability to underpin return to growth in FY28e

early Forecasts (FYE Jun)

-2.5% in 1H26 to -7.2% in the first 8 weeks of 2H26 (impacted by weather and

Adj. EBITDA (A$ mn)

holiday timing). The SSSg recovery over the final 18 weeks of 2H26 was less 2025A 2026E 2027E

pronounced than expected, with a disappointing -5.0% SSSg, to drive -5.7% H1 178 172A 174

for the full 2H26e. The more rational approach to promotions is weighing on H2 169 158 162

FY 347 330 337

delivery orders, and while the WA trial has had a relatively isolated sales

impact, multiple shifts in promotional strategies have been undertaken across Style Exposure

several regions, broadly consistent with a strategy to drive fewer but more

profitable orders. We expect negative SSSg to continue into 1H27e (-2.7%

YoY) before stabilising in 2H27e (-0.2% YoY). The patience of DPZ in light

of these declines in store numbers and order count will be tested over the next

6-12 months.

• Improved franchisee profitability an important starting point for

sustainable growth. Franchisee health has improved over the past twelve

months, with EBITDA per store lifting by 11% to $105,700, the highest level

since 2022, albeit still well below the ~$130,000 level required to sustainably

grow the store network. This improvement in franchisee profitability follows:

1) fewer unprofitable promotions; 2) two thirds of the $60-70m annualised

cost-out shared with franchisees; and 3) store closures, which remove some of

the tail of stores. These themes are likely to continue in FY27e, rebuilding

profitability ahead of a return to store expansion in FY28e, post the ~60 store

closures, largely in 2H27 (29 in ANZ, 25 in Europe, 6 in Asia).