Vinci: 1H P&L/FCF beats overall. Group guidance confirmed

Research evidence excerpt

Vinci: 1H P&L/FCF beats overall. Group guidance confirmed

Victor Acitores +34 915 893 901 victor.acitores@bernsteinsg.com 30 July 2026

INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS

Bernstein view. We expect a positive share-price reaction today, reflecting the FCF and P&L beats. The 1H26 conf. call is

scheduled for 10.30am (CET): +44 33 0551 0200/ +33 1 7037 7166. We have an Outperform rating on the stock with a

€163.5 PT (SOTP based). Our rating is supported by value appeal at current prices. For the SOTP breakdown, see our 19

February 2026 report – Vinci: Value optionality remains in place. Outperform

Leaving aside the value appeal, in the short term we expect market-share volatility to remain elevated, driven by uncertainty on

the macro environment, notably France’s political landscape and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In France, political risk

is likely to re-emerge from late August as Parliament resumes, reviving concerns over fiscal negotiations, legislative gridlock and

potential government instability— issues that have periodically weighed on market sentiment since the snap elections in 2024.

Note that our SG strategists are currently less constructive on French equities (see Big Picture report published on 23 June; 3Q

outlook; link), as the French presidential election is now less than a year away (expected in April 2027) and could increasingly

cloud the outlook. Beyond the macro backdrop, we think the main factors to monitor are operational business trends (2H26

results), the group’s capital allocation, renewables diversification deployment, newsflow on airport capex extensions (Lisbon &

Gatwick) and the execution of Germany’s new infra fund.

Regarding FY26 guidance, note that the implicit divisional assumptions of our current FY26 model are virtually in line with the