ORIX (8591): Checkpoints for Toshiba/Kioxia

Research evidence excerpt

ORIX (8591): Checkpoints for Toshiba/Kioxia

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

30 July 2026

ORIX (8591) Neutral

8591.T, 8591 JP

Checkpoints for Toshiba/Kioxia Price (29 Jul 26):¥6,496

Price Target (Dec-26):¥6,100

In light of developments in the recapitalization of TB Investment Limited Japan Equity Research

Partnership (TBILP), an investment vehicle established by Japan Industrial

Insurance, Securities, Diversified

Partners (JIP) for the purpose of taking Toshiba private, and the decline in KIOXIA Financials

Holdings’ (Kioxia’s) share price, we look again at issues relating to Orix. AC Koki Sato

• Capital contributions apparently returned to TBILP investors: In its July (81-3) 6736-8609

29 1Q FY2026 (FY3/27) results briefing, Chubu Electric Power said that it koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

received a ¥55.8 billion capital reduction distribution as part of its ¥100 billion Yuka Azami

(81-3) 6736-8619

initial investment in TBILP. We think that capital was returned to other yuka.azami@jpmorgan.com

investors, including Orix, in the same proportion. In our view, the distribution JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

likely returns surplus funds arising from recapitalization efforts, and this is

consistent with it having been treated as a capital reduction distribution rather

than a profit distribution. Orix applies the equity method to TBILP, which

differs to the classification as regular marketable securities investments by

other investors (Chubu Electric Power, Rohm, etc.), but the impact on P&L

should be neutral for all of them. Our basic view is that the timing of the profit

and loss distribution will be after the exit gain is realized by the relisting of

Toshiba, which JIP says could be as early as 2028.