Morning News & Views - Asia: A Summary of Select Global Markets Research

Research evidence excerpt

Morning News & Views - Asia: A Summary of Select Global Markets Research

e – would push

financial conditions into restrictive territory and materially alter the growth/policy outlook. Barring a global systemic shock, however,

we believe that such a scenario is unlikely over the coming months. Therefore, as we believe the recent correction is not sufficiently

large to alter the BOK’s assessment of financial conditions, we maintain our view of three more 25bp hikes, including aback-to-

back25bphike in August (terminal rate: 3.50%).

Economic Insights - US: Will AI-driven productivity lead to disinflation?

Jeremy Schwartz - NSI / Ruchir Sharma - NSI / Aichi Amemiya - NSI

We view Chair Warsh’s optimism on the disinflationary impact of productivity as an important signal of his dovish inclination. In

theory, productivity can have either a positive or negative impact on inflation. Historically, there is some negative correlation, but the

relationship is inconsistent and has performed especially poorly in recent decades. The policy implications of productivity trends are

subtle. In real time, strong productivity growth is a good reason to tolerate hawkish signals from growth or wages. This is different

from assuming future productivity growth will drive incremental disinflation. Warsh has not convinced other Fed officials that AI will

be predictably disinflationary. His repeated emphasis on productivity and supply growth makes us skeptical that he will turn hawkish

and support pre-emptive rate hikes though. As Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh consistently emphasizes productivity growth, suggesting

this should be an important driver of policy decisions.

HONG KONG / CHINA

China consumer - Read-across from LVMH’s 2Q26 results

Jizhou Dong, CFA - NIHK / Summer Qian - NIHK