Japan equity morning memo: Initial reaction to Kumamoto earthquake

Research evidence excerpt

Japan equity morning memo: Initial reaction to Kumamoto earthquake

Global Markets Research

Japan equity morning memo: Initial reaction to 29 July 2026Kumamoto earthquake

EQUITY: JAPAN STRATEGY

Research AnalystsBased on past patterns, markets may react relatively calmly

Macro strategy

Tomochika Kitaoka - NSC

tomochika.kitaoka@nomura.comQuick Note +81 3 6703 1815

We would like to extend our sympathy to all those affected by the Kumamoto earthquake.

We sincerely hope for a swift recovery and reconstruction.

An earthquake registering a maximum seismic intensity of 7 struck Kumamoto Prefecture

at 4:27pm JST on 28 July. Reports indicate that it caused a partial collapse of a large

shopping mall, suspension of Kyushu Shinkansen services and closures on the Kyushu

Expressway, shutdowns at major automobile plants, and extensive damage at a paper

mill, with the full extent of the damage likely to become clearer from 29 July onward.

Following the April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, the Cabinet Office estimated damage to

capital stock at roughly ¥2.4–4.6trn and the GDP loss at ¥90–127bn. However, given the

subsequent attraction of semiconductor plants to the region, the impact through supply

chains could be larger this time. There are 11 listed companies headquartered in

Kumamoto Prefecture. Among them, construction companies temporarily saw a sharp

increase in their share prices during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. We can identify 118

listed companies that have business sites or sales offices in the prefecture. These include

companies related not only to automobiles and semiconductors, but also semiconductor

manufacturing equipment and electronic materials. After the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake,

these stocks tended to fall initially before recovering.