Aixtron: Q2‘26 First Take: Orders ahead on continued Opto momentum

Research evidence excerpt

Aixtron: Q2‘26 First Take: Orders ahead on continued Opto momentum

Craig A McDowell AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-4576 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

craig.mcdowell@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Aixtron (Overweight; Price Target: €70.00)

Investment Thesis

We expect that order momentum should improve through 2026 driven by both

Optoelectronic and a recovery in GaN and SiC (mainly in the latter half of 2026), which

should support a material improvement in revenue in 2027 and 2028. We see Optoelectronic

end-market demand as supporting tool growth through 2026-2028 (at least) with upside to

management’s indicative range of tool demand; SiC should recover from a trough in 2026

while GaN should see continued end-market adoption supporting continued tool revenue in

the forecast period (with support also coming from the DC Power opportunity). We see

upside coming from higher than expected earnings estimates in and also from re-rating

potential as the discount to peers narrows.

Valuation

We set our December 2027 price target at €70.00. We derive our price target by applying a

22.0x EV/EBIT multiple to our 2028 forecasts (unchanged multiple). Our selected price

target multiple of 22.0x is a ~25% discount to OEM/Toolmaker and a ~5% premium to

Component Supplier peer group, which can be justified by improving growth (including

duration) as well as margin and return profile.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Downside risks

• Slower SiC market re-acceleration: If device makers chose to continue to run smaller

diameter equipment, rather than convert to 200mm equipment (where Aixtron has a

strong portfolio) this would represent downside risk to estimates.

• Market share loss: If competitors act more aggressively to gain share, in particular with