Erste Group: First Take 2Q26: Strong CET1 build despite higher payout accrual, core income soft but 2026 NII and Fees outlook reiterated

Research evidence excerpt

Erste Group: First Take 2Q26: Strong CET1 build despite higher payout accrual, core income soft but 2026 NII and Fees outlook reiterated

Amit Ranjan AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4576 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

amit.x.ranjan@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Erste Group (Overweight; Price Target: €127.00)

Investment Thesis

EBS AV’s strong CEE franchise continues to benefit from increasing financial inclusion in

the region, and it is geared to countries offering strong growth potential. The bank has

demonstrated consistent profitability and a solid balance sheet, underpinned by prudent risk

management and a diversified loan portfolio. The Group’s commitment to digital

transformation and innovation has enhanced its income streams and operational efficiency.

The acquisition of a 49% stake in Erste Bank Polska (EBP) is attractive for Erste Group, in

our view, and we forecast a €10+ stated EPS in 2027E. Erste is targeting a 14.25% CET1

ratio post acquisition from 2026, with the bank already reaching that level with a 14.8%

CET1 ratio in 1Q. In our view, capital deployment optionality for Erste relates mainly to:

i.) size of the payout, where Erste has indicated a target range of 40-50% dividend payout

ratio, and ii.) a stake increase in EBP beyond the current 49%. While recognising the

complications around an offer and the associated de-listing/re-listing of a free float, as a

sensitivity, we see a stake increase to 75% in EBP at current prices leading to a 8/9% EPS

uplift in 2027/28E for Erste while consuming c.150bps of CET1 at current prices. We expect

to get further clarity on capital deployment towards the end of this year as Erste builds capital

through the year and weighs the merits of a further stake increase vs. capital return options.