Mondi: Q2‘26 first take: Nice beat but cost pressures remain persistent into the back half

Research evidence excerpt

Mondi: Q2‘26 first take: Nice beat but cost pressures remain persistent into the back half

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

30 July 2026

Mondi Neutral

MNDI.L, MNDI LN

Q2’26 first take: Nice beat but cost pressures remain Price (29 Jul 26):789p

persistent into the back half ▼Price Target (Dec-27):800p

Prior (Dec-27):840p

Excluding a fair value loss of €43m in the quarter, Q2’26 EBITDA came in at

€210m versus JPMe of €178m and our understanding of buy-side consensus of Neutral

€180-190m. Looking forward, profitability should be boosted by kraftliner and MNPJ.J, MNP SJ

testliner price tailwinds as well as lower-than-expected maintenance costs. Price (29 Jul 26):17,325c

However, since we last published on the 8th of July (see here), costs have continued ▼Price Target (Dec-27):18,500c

to climb, namely energy and wood fibre costs. This suggests a lower price/cost Prior (Dec-27):23,000c

tailwind than we had initially hoped for as we move from Q2 into the second half.

While our FY’26 EBITDA estimate increases by 3% and our FY’27 EBITDA

EMEA Forestry, Paper & Packaging

estimate decreases by 1%, cash flow generation is better thanks to lower €50m and South African Industrials

lower than expected capex guidance in FY’26 and slightly lowered net finance

Detlef Winckelmann ACcharges. Lower D&A guidance also enables us to boost our EPS estimates (11%

(44-20) 3493-5190

upward revision in FY’27) and raise our DPS estimates slightly to €0.2/share in detlef.winckelmann@jpmorgan.com

FY’26 (dividend yield : 2%) and €0.25/share in FY’27. As a result of the change J.P. Morgan Securities plc / J.P. Morgan Markets

in our earnings estimates, our 31-Dec 2027 TP decreases from £8.4/share to £8.0/ Limited

share. Our recommendation remains Neutral.

• Q2’26 into H2’26.